Using Stock Analysis Tool
Everything you need to install the program, read its numbers and keep its data fresh.
Getting started
What you need
- A PC with Windows 10 or 11.
- An internet connection for downloading data and activating the license. Scores and analysis work offline afterwards.
- Chrome or Edge installed. The program opens in its own window using one of them.
1. Download and install
After you buy, sign in on the website and open My account. The Download card has the newest version, and your license key is listed above it.
2. Activate
The first time the program starts it asks for two things: the email you bought with and your license key
(25 characters, shown as XXXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX). Capital letters, spaces and dashes don't matter.
3. Download the data
- Open the Data page.
- Enter your email address and save it. The SEC asks everyone who downloads filings to identify themselves with a contact email. It is only sent to the SEC with those requests.
- Click Start download. The first download takes a while because it collects years of history. Later updates are much faster.
When it finishes, the Find stocks page fills with scored companies.
Find stocks
The main page lists every company the tool has scored, best-balanced first: a high score with a low crash risk.
The columns
| Column | What it means |
|---|---|
| Score | 0 to 100. A score of 90 means the stock has a higher win chance than 90% of the stocks on today's list. It is a ranking, not a percentage chance. |
| Win chance | The estimated chance the stock beats the S&P 500 by 10% or more over the next 12 months. The average stock is around 28%, and the best scores reach the mid-30s. |
| Crash risk | The estimated chance the stock loses half its value or more within 12 months. |
| Template | How closely the company's numbers match the typical past winner. |
| Traits | How many of the common winner traits the company has (see Winner traits). |
| Top reasons | The numbers that pushed this stock's win chance up the most. |
Colours: a green score is 90 or more, blue is 75 or more, and red is 10 or less. Crash risk turns red at 30%.
Filters
| Filter | What it does |
|---|---|
| All / S&P 500 / Young companies / Other | Which group of companies to list. |
| Any price … Under $5 | Keeps only stocks below a share price. |
| Show delisted / Hide delisted | Hides smaller companies whose exchange has warned it may remove them in the past year. |
| Show 100 … Show 1000 | How many stocks to list. |
| Top candidates | Keeps only stocks with a score of 75 or more and a crash risk in the lowest quarter of today's list. |
| ★ Starred | Shows only the stocks you starred. Click the star next to any ticker to add it. |
| Sector and Sort | Limit the list to one sector, and sort by score, crash risk, price, template match or traits. |
Finding one stock
Type a ticker in the box at the top. Search jumps to it in the current list. Analyze opens its full page, and downloads the company first if it isn't in the database yet.
Middle-click (or Ctrl+click) any row to open that stock in its own tab next to the Main tab.
Analyze a stock
A stock's page explains its score instead of just stating it.
- Score, win chance and crash risk at the top, next to the average stock's figures for comparison.
- Raises win chance and Lowers win chance: the numbers that moved this stock's odds the most, with where each one ranks. Company-statement numbers are ranked against the same sector; price and trading numbers against all stocks.
- The main reasons behind the crash risk, listed under it.
- Winner traits checklist and red flags: which of the common winner traits this stock has.
- Key numbers such as size, revenue growth, margins, debt and the past year's return.
- Win chance over time and price for the last three years.
- Similar past winners: earlier companies that looked like this one and went on to beat the market.
- Recent company events from SEC filings, such as executive changes, acquisitions and restructurings.
Warnings and tags
A ⚠ next to a ticker means the stock belongs to a group that has crashed far more often than average. Open it to read the details.
| Warning or tag | When it shows |
|---|---|
| Under $1 | The share price is below one dollar. |
| Delisting notice | A company worth under $1 billion filed a delisting notice in the past year, which usually means its exchange says it no longer meets the listing rules. |
| Barely trades | Under $50,000 of the stock changes hands a day. Quoted prices for these are often not prices you could buy or sell at, and the tool's test results don't cover them. |
| young | A newly listed company with a short history. There is less to go on. |
| foreign | A foreign company. Its company events and insider filings are not tracked, so those numbers are blank. |
Winner traits
The Winner traits page lists what past winners most often had in common, such as heavy share buybacks or a recent restructuring, with how often stocks with each trait went on to win. It also lists red flags and the combinations of traits that worked best. Each stock's page shows which of these it has.
How the scores are made
A winner is a stock whose return over the next 12 months beat the S&P 500's by at least 10 percentage points.
- Every month since 2009, each company's financials, price behaviour and company events were recorded as they were known on that date. Financial numbers only count from the day they were filed with the SEC.
- A model learned which combinations of 60 signals came before winners, and a second model learned which came before crashes.
- Each test year from 2013 on was scored by a model trained only on earlier years, so no result is graded on its own answers.
- The win chance and crash risk you see are corrected against those test results, separately for small and large companies.
What the test showed. The top-scored 10% of stocks went on to win about 32% of the time, against about 28% for all stocks, and were ahead in 11 of 13 test years. The crash model is stronger: about a third of the highest-risk tenth lost half their value, against about 1 in 200 in the lowest-risk quarter. The program's How it works page shows the current figures.
Limits to keep in mind. Even the best-scored stocks miss more often than they hit. The data only includes companies that still trade today, which makes every figure look better than a real investor would have seen. The edge only shows up across many stocks, never on a single pick.
Data and updates
All data is free and downloaded straight to your PC: company financials and filings from the SEC, and prices, exchange rates and share counts from public market data. No API keys are needed.
Updating
- Update now on the Data page refreshes everything and re-scores every stock.
- Auto Download does it for you: daily, weekly, every 2 weeks or monthly. It runs while the program is open. If the program was closed when an update was due, the update starts shortly after you next open it.
- If an update is interrupted, it resumes where it stopped the next time the program opens, keeping what was already downloaded.
After an update, click ↻ at the top right to reload the program with the new scores.
Your license
- One license works on one computer.
- Your key is emailed after payment and is always listed on My account.
- The program checks the license online at most once a day, in the background. It keeps working offline for 14 days after the last successful check.
Moving to another computer
- On the old computer, open the Data page and click Deactivate on the License card. If you no longer have that computer, click Deactivate next to the key on My account instead.
- Install the program on the new computer and activate it with the same email and key.
Troubleshooting
"That email address doesn't match this license key"
Use the email address you paid with. It is the address the key was emailed to, and the one shown on your account page.
"This key is already activated on another computer"
Deactivate it on that computer first, or from My account.
A ticker isn't found
The tool covers companies that file financial reports with the SEC. ETFs, funds and stocks listed only outside the US are not supported.
Some numbers are blank
A blank means the company doesn't report that number, or reports it in a form the tool can't read. This is most common for foreign companies and for companies with no revenue yet. Blank numbers are taken into account when scoring.
An update didn't finish
Open the Data page and click Resume update. Files that were already downloaded are reused.
The Start download button is greyed out
Save your email address on the Data page first.
Disclaimer
Stock Analysis Tool is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend buying or selling any security. Scores, win chances and crash risks are statistical estimates from past data and can be wrong. Past results do not predict future results. Investing involves risk, including the loss of everything you invest. Decisions you make are your own.